Aristotle Exchange, Inc. (PredictIt)
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anchored·42itj6…9WjRSummary
Aristotle Exchange, Inc. is a Washington, D.C.-based political technology company founded by John Aristotle Phillips that operates PredictIt, a regulated U.S. political prediction market. In September 2025, the company received CFTC approval to operate as a Designated Contract Market and Derivatives Clearing Organization, and was subsequently acquired by fantasy sports firm Underdog in March 2026. On September 29, 2026, House Oversight Committee Chairman James Comer sent a formal records request to Aristotle Exchange as part of an expanded congressional investigation into insider trading on prediction market platforms using nonpublic or classified government information, with a response deadline of October 13, 2026.
Connected Entities
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Timeline(16 events)
1 January 1983
John Aristotle Phillips co-founds Aristotle, Inc., a political technology and voter data company in Washington, D.C.
Aristotle.com About page1 January 2014
CFTC issues no-action letter to Victoria University of Wellington permitting PredictIt to operate as a small-scale, nonprofit educational prediction market.
Willkie Compliance Concourse3 November 2014
PredictIt launches as a political prediction market, operated in partnership between Aristotle Exchange and Victoria University of Wellington.
Yahoo Finance4 August 2022
CFTC rescinds PredictIt's no-action letter, citing non-compliance with terms, and orders all contracts closed by February 15, 2023.
Willkie Compliance Concourse1 September 2022
PredictIt and Aristotle International file suit against the CFTC in U.S. District Court for the Western District of Texas.
Mick Bransfield legal analysis26 January 2023
Fifth Circuit Court of Appeals grants temporary injunction allowing PredictIt to continue operating, finding CFTC rescission was likely arbitrary and capricious.
Clarke v. CFTC, No. 22-51124 (5th Cir. 2023) — Justia14 July 2025
CFTC issues amended no-action letter 25-20, transitioning PredictIt's operational responsibility to the Prediction Market Research Consortium, Inc. (PMRC).
Yahoo Finance — PredictIt CFTC settlement announcement22 July 2025
U.S. District Court for the Western District of Texas enters final judgment in favor of PredictIt, resolving the CFTC litigation.
Yahoo Finance — PredictIt CFTC settlement announcement5 September 2025
Aristotle Exchange, Inc. receives CFTC approval to operate as a Designated Contract Market (DCM) and Derivatives Clearing Organization (DCO).
GlobeNewswire10 October 2025
A trader allegedly places a roughly $1.1 billion leveraged short on Bitcoin and Ethereum perpetual futures on Hyperliquid approximately 30 hours before President Trump's tariff announcement on China, generating an alleged profit exceeding $150 million. Congressional investigation later cites this incident; the trader has not been identified, and no charges have been filed as of available reporting.
Yahoo Finance — House Targets Hyperliquid27 December 2025
Army Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke allegedly begins placing prediction market bets on Polymarket on contracts related to Venezuela and the status of President Maduro, allegedly using classified intelligence about a U.S. military operation. (Dates per federal indictment; Van Dyke has pleaded not guilty.)
Time — Soldier Charged With Insider Trading on Polymarket9 March 2026
Underdog announces acquisition of Aristotle Exchange, Inc., including its CFTC DCM and DCO licenses. PredictIt continues operating under the PMRC no-action letter framework.
Bloomberg24 April 2026
Federal indictment unsealed against Army Master Sergeant Gannon Ken Van Dyke on five counts related to alleged insider trading on Polymarket using classified military intelligence. Van Dyke enters a not guilty plea in late April.
Time — Soldier Charged With Insider Trading on Polymarket1 May 2026
House Oversight Committee launches initial investigation into prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket, examining adequacy of safeguards against insider trading using nonpublic government information.
House Oversight Committee press release29 September 2026
Chairman Comer sends formal records request letters to Aristotle Exchange, Inc. (PredictIt), Hyperliquid Labs, and Crypto.com, expanding the congressional insider trading investigation. Response deadline set for October 13, 2026.
House Oversight Committee — formal letter to Aristotle Exchange13 October 2026
Congressional response deadline passes for Aristotle Exchange, Hyperliquid, and Crypto.com. No confirmed public response from Aristotle Exchange or Underdog has been reported as of October 14, 2026.
Hyperliquid Insider Trading Probe: Congress Sets October 13 Deadline — AirdropAlertDecision Log
- slot 456831910 · hash Gk8KnoZ8urw43eKhMdmB6BY2zm6KDbP5ASQrRTrPqQ67
This investigation is cryptographically anchored to the Solana blockchain (1 decision). 7 of 20 cited source URLs have an Internet Archive snapshot.
model: claude-sonnet-4-6
generated: 10/14/2026, 12:04:19 PM
last updated: 10/14/2026, 12:04:20 PM
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